Stochastic Modeling
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[Stochastic Modeling]
[Expert System Design]
[Neural Network Analysis]
 

 

Introduction:

Stochastic Simulation uses Computer techniques to imitate or evaluate a model numerically in order to estimate the desired true characteristics of a system having random input components.


Benefits:

Since most complex, real-world systems with stochastic elements cannot be accurately described by a mathematical model that can be evaluated analytically, a simulation is often the only type of investigation possible.

  • Estimate the performance of an existing system under a projected set of operating conditions.
  • Alternative proposed system ideas can be compared to test requirement satisfaction.
  • Maintain better control over experimental conditions.
  • Study a system with a long or compressed time frame in compressed time, or study the detailed workings of a system in expanded time.

 

Figure 1.1: Example of an Arena Simulation


Experience/Applications/Customers:

Nuclear Materials Siting Analysis Model
Specific model developed for the DOE allows rapid evaluation the benefits of locating production and disposition facilities against the burden of waste generation in a dynamic manner.  It allows manipulation of scheduled event timing and displays cost savings, FTE gains, and mile of waste transported nationwide.  This contributed significantly to waste siting decisions  and providing a forum for system rules, data, and procedure discussion.

Customers:DOE (Vic Reis, DP 1; Dave Huzinga, EM 60)

 

Figure 1.2: Example of The Nuclear Materials Siting Analysis Model

Neutron Tube Specified Process Models
Creation of 15 process-specific simulations designed to aid in neutron tube  production capacity and resource planning.  Current studies include Brazing, Ni Plate, Ni Sinter Fire, and Metallize processes.  Metrics included utilization and throughput. Customers: Sandia National Laboratories: Org 14000

Neutron Generator Production Process Model
Created a simulation which provides forecasted decision support information regarding cycle time, throughput, equipment utilization, capacity planning and bottleneck analyses, labor allocation, and product routing. Customers: Sandia National Laboratories:  Org. 14000

 

        Figure 1.3: Example of a Production Process Flow

DAMA Pipeline Analysis and Simulation
Established skill and knowledge base necessary to fulfill
DAMA modeling requirements for supply chains in the American Textile Industry.  Assisted with current pipeline model evaluations, data collection techniques, and preliminary supply chain simulation. 

Molybdenum 99 Production Process Model
Simulated the Molybdenum-99 production sequence to identify optimum reactor loading, product scheduling, logistic options, and fluctuating customer demand.

United Way Cash Flow Model
Created a cash flow analysis simulation to assist New Mexico United Way Board of Directors in the evaluation of future bank partnership associations. Customers: United Way of New Mexico and Sandia National Laboratories:  Org. 4500


Other Applications:

  • Evaluating hardware and software requirements for a computer system
  • Evaluating a new military weapons system or tactic
  • Determining ordering policies for an inventory system
  • Designing and operating transportation facilities such as freeways, airports, subways, or ports
  • Analyzing financial or economic systems